louisg tell the nha they are clue less

  • Flash Harry
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Re: Re: louisg tell the nha they are clue less

11 years 7 months ago
#407873
to me negev is get the rating on her last run against formation. the first two run on sand is very poor no near the last run. now the rule say as louis say you cant get mr increase if you no win the plate race. BUT hear i think louis make mistake be cause the handicapper MUST take these race into account as it is negev "qualifying" run?

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  • oscar
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Re: Re: louisg tell the nha they are clue less

11 years 7 months ago
#407877
Louis you are correct 100%.In my opinion Racing in SA is designed around betting pools..note betting pools...the more racing the better Phum does. That means that the more races they have for the majority of horses (which are weak as only maybe 2% of our horses are really good) the better for their dividend and bonuses! They don't want to have lots of races with 1/10 favorites in them because that affects the size of the pool..ie the more favorites which look unbeatable the less the size of the exotics, the less the dividends and the lower the bonuses.

Therefore a horse which they think looks like it could win 5 in a row they penalize heavily and fast and are very slow to bring down the rating they suck out of their thumb. It is a sad state of affairs but the objective of the Co running racing in SA has to be helped along surely and one way to do it is through handicapping.

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  • easy
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Re: Re: louisg tell the nha they are clue less

11 years 7 months ago
#407886
Oscar

On what do you base this theory?

I know for a fact that more money is traded in a race with an odds on shot that with 5/1 the field ( on betfair)
In the usa with very small fields pool sizes are still okay and in france they are brilliant.
Hong kong pools are stupendous


Now look at how things operate in hk
Kak trainer = out
Kak jockey = out
Kak horse = out

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  • Bob Brogan
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Re: Re: louisg tell the nha they are clue less

11 years 7 months ago
#407888
Easy when Camelot was short price fav to win the Derby it was the poorest turn over ever for a Derby

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  • easy
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Re: Re: louisg tell the nha they are clue less

11 years 7 months ago
#407891
turnover with whom?

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  • Bob Brogan
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Re: Re: louisg tell the nha they are clue less

11 years 7 months ago
#407892
Also HK only race twice a week? so pools will always be massive,Hk have a fraction of the races that the other Major centres have so can pick and choose.
US racetracks are closing down and are in deep Kak
Betfair trading figures are falling
South African win pools are always very small
South African exotic pools midweek are bigger than the UK`s
There is more KAK Trainers and KaK horses in the UK and Usa than South Africa
American racing is suicidal to watch,with 2 or 3 trainers and Jocks dominating each region.

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  • louisg
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Re: Re: louisg tell the nha they are clue less

11 years 7 months ago
#407901
Flash, I said the same thing. Read again - all plate races form part of the formline and ARE assessed, its just the limits on penalties that apply to that particular race. We agree !

The reason for the limitations on penalties in plate races, is exactly as Oscar says - this condition is Operator imposed, with the goal towards bigger fields, for the benefit of turnover. When out at the weights, most Trainers scratch, resulting in smaller fields. Also, in some plate races, horses get half a kilo off for every unplaced run, since their last placed run, up to 5 points.

Ultimately, this does skew the system. The point is that the higher rated horses, the ones with few wins and high ratings should run in plate races. But here's the problem - there are very few plate races. Why ? Simply because of turnover. So the genuine plate race types battle to find a string of 2 or 3 plate races on a regular basis or over a fair period.

The other problem, of course, is that turnover pays the stakes and if you are not getting the stakes back because of a small field, what do you do ? How many losses do you take ? Its complex, to say the least.

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  • Zietsman Oosthuizen
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Re: Re: louisg tell the nha they are clue less

11 years 7 months ago
#407910
Oom louis

i do understand your view and see the logic but the future for trip tease looks very bright ....he is way above the handicappers rating and will win at least 2 more before the handicapper will get to his debut rating on my ability rating chart. i do know that he is even better than his debut run and it can take the handicapper maybe another 3wins to say he is infact handicapped on ability.... the problem is with the current MR system is that if trip tease run in that same races 2nd every time he could well reach his handicapped rating of 100+ gross and will end up another 1 time winner rated good enough to have a place in computaform sprint like azzie's brooks club for example......that is bullshit i agree
good luck .... maybe a suggestion is to have a limit on penalties like 6points for winning a race over the board but for horses running behind in places or last place a allocated rating for the race but then take also the horse's last 3 races rating in consideration and get a true rating on ave of the horse.

dont know if i make sense but its a not soo complex idea and will give any horse a fair chance of winning his races and will give good handicappers a fair chance to earn regularly without getting outhandicapped when not winning.....
does it make sense?

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  • louisg
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Re: Re: louisg tell the nha they are clue less

11 years 7 months ago
#407986
Ziets you make perfect sense. Flash says the same thing, by preferring the old RF system. Glad we starting to find the common ground. There MUST be a good balanced solution which benefits us all, including turnovers....

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  • rob faux
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Re: Re: louisg tell the nha they are clue less

11 years 7 months ago
#408029
The Snaith stable in PE make any rating system look stupid :S

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  • Solotrama
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Re: Re: louisg tell the nha they are clue less

11 years 7 months ago
#408030
PE race 3 plate race

Augusta national should have finished 11 lenghths in front of diamond emblem and 14 lenthgs in front of Sound suround !


The result both DE and SS beat Augusta national

balls up !!!

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  • Zietsman Oosthuizen
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Re: Re: louisg tell the nha they are clue less

11 years 7 months ago
#408046
maybe snaith can explain that and why she didnt run to ability like earth orbit ......they both was as certainties as frankel on paper.....and should have won by many lengths even if they was 90% ready.....

if both wasnt 100% why not inform the public???

they also here on abc and can maybe give us a explanation of what went wrong with the shortest 2 runners they had in this month in pe..... did both get injured in running ????

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